AGEX Group: 2025, a year for the history

When we close out a year, it’s common to be swept up in the illusion that what lies ahead will be better. However, after witnessing the start of 2025, marked by a dizzying geopolitical landscape and a sense of chaos comparable to a Russian roulette or a double backflip on a bicycle over the Rocky Mountains but without a safety net! perhaps we should reconsider whether it’s really time to feel nostalgic for 2024.

Only three months into the year and just two months since the changes in the White House, the international landscape has continued to surprise us. Events have unfolded with such intensity that they leave us feeling, at the very least, confused, overwhelmed, and anxious echoing the famous phrase by Mafalda: “Stop the world, I want to get off.”

International trade has always been a complex challenge, requiring time, dedication, and countless trips to earn market trust, consolidate factories, and secure long-term employment. Over the years, one begins to believe they’ve seen it all: wars, financial crises, bankruptcies, and government interventions. Yet what we are experiencing today defies logic and is, to say the least, difficult to process especially when some members of our own team seem to be scoring own goals, without warning and with unpredictable consequences.

Trying to predict the direction of the coming months or years would be reckless. Still, the only solace is that we’re all in the same boat, which in some way preserves a balance of power. It’s also interesting to note that among the initial list of sanctioned countries, Mexico and Canada are not included. Could it be that the U.S. administration has acknowledged its reliance on these strategic markets?

The United States is an atypical economic power: it’s not known for being a major manufacturer or exporter, but rather a massive consumer and top-tier importer. Perhaps this has been underestimated by the current Administration. The trade barriers it’s trying to impose on the world will likely be limited or even reversed once American industry and society begin to feel the consequences. They’ve already faced egg shortages due to avian flu, raising public awareness about the impacts of such disruptions.

When shortages of essential products like tomatoes, wine, olive oil, or key types of steel hit, and when car supply can’t meet demand, social unrest may force a reassessment. Ultimately, any measure that threatens the standard of living and well-being untouchable values in U.S. society will provoke a push for change.

That said, American consumers have significantly higher purchasing power than we do, allowing them to absorb price increases more easily. As a small consolation, we can remember that our dependence on the U.S. market is relatively low compared to that of many of our European partners.